Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
75 0x7586…377b other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 12% −$8
other 9% +$4
sports 1% +$11
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.5% +6.3% 33% 17% -3.8%
≤30d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 18% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 52 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 15% -8.9%
all 64 +0.3% -9.2% 23% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 12% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 12% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage617d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $89 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 +$4 +50%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $10 +$6 +59%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$8 +108%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +0%
Canadiens vs. Predators Mar 30 $30 +$25 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 20h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 23h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $6 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.04 · official $76.04 (match) · 299 history records