Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7585…a2d7 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 33% −$13
sports 9% −$15
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -2.4% -11.7% 7% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage132d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $262 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $240 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $255 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $542 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $280 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $462 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 6h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $39 19d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 24d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $248 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $248 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $240 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $255 26d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $255 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $272 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $272 28d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $265 28d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $265 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 29d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 354 history records