Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7585…7c37 world 40 markets active 1d ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$1
other 12% +$1
politics 5% +$1
sports 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.2% 35% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -3.7% -12.9% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage464d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $51 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $103 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $47 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 19 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 14? Mar 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 13 $1 $0 -36%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $51 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 36h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $52 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $51 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $43 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $41 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records