Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x7581…5a95 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$44 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%81W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$24
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$28
sports 30% +$6
crypto 21% −$31
finance 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -12.9% -21.2% 37% 35% +1.5%
≤30d 111 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 36% -0.2%
≤90d 118 -15.5% -23.5% 36% 35% -1.2%
all 196 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -3.9%
10% -25.3% 37% -13.1%
15% -32.5% 32% -21.5%
20% -39.1% 26% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses81 / 115
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 202
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $36 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$9 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $13 −$10 -79%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $29 +$8 +28%
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 28 $16 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $23 +$14 +61%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 −$6 -38%
Will HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 +$18 +107%
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $16 −$14 -85%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 +$6 +45%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 −$7 -93%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $23 +$11 +50%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 −$7 -57%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $12 +$12 +102%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw Jun 27 $9 −$7 -81%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 +$17 +129%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $13 −$11 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$7 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 +$13 +197%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 $0 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$5 +85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$9 +105%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 −$7 -79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$18 +230%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $34 −$32 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$23 +269%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$11 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$5 +49%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$8 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$22 +115%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$12 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $36 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 8h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 21h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 21h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $7 21h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 22h
Will Fortaleza EC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 23h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $9 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 24h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 25h
Will HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 25h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 26h
Will HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 26h
Will HUS Agadir vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $17 30h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 30h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.57 · official $38.57 (match) · 562 history records