Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7581…76e6 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,107 (+47%) realized +$1,570 · open −$463
Gross ROI / mkt +353% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +310% what you keep after slip
Net edge+310%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$468
crypto 39% +$1,403
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+309.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 10 +353.0% +309.8% 30% 30% +57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +309.8% 30% +57.5%
10% +270.6% 30% +42.4%
15% +234.8% 30% +28.7%
20% +202.0% 30% +16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +353% · $-wt +154% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$722 vs −$112 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$990
Realized+$1,570
Unrealized−$463
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions24
Markets (closed)10 / 34
History coverage122d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $487 $210 −$276 (-57%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Mar 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $30 +$773 +2578%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $40 +$1,345 +3364%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 25? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22? Feb 19 $397 −$397 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 15 $55 −$36 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Feb 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Feb 15 $25 +$48 +191%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $487 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY Yes $20 58d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes $10 78d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? BUY Yes $301 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $803 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,385 111d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 25? BUY Yes $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $989.98 · official $989.98 (match) · 41 history records