Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7581…2ca4 weather 1375 markets active 4h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,106 (-15%) realized −$1,060 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%324W / 1000L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days−$488
14 days−$374
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$910
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$7
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -23.9% -31.1% 31% 31% -31.3%
≤30d 956 -26.6% -33.6% 26% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 1324 -22.9% -30.2% 24% 23% -20.2%
all 1324 -22.9% -30.2% 24% 23% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 23% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 21% -27.8%
15% -43.0% 18% -34.8%
20% -48.6% 16% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$1,060
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses324 / 1000
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1324 / 1375
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 17 $0 +$2 +446%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on April 29? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -9883%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 29? Jun 17 $0 −$4 -10974%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 29? Jun 17 $0 −$4 -9135%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 17 $0 −$1 -2083%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $31 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $31 +$32 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$8 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$73 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$30 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $43 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$21 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$114 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$41 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $49 −$47 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $31 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 +$33 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$70 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$20 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $89 −$86 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$11 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$62 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$26 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $56 −$38 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $168 −$153 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 93¢ $44 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $63 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 64¢ $31 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 47¢ $31 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $43 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $19 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 23¢ $59 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 47¢ $20 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 46¢ $21 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.62 · official $46.62 (match) · 3500 history records