Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7580…1bf2 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$1,391 (+12%) realized +$1,385 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate66%89W / 46L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,056
world 7% +$303
finance 3% +$10
sports 2% +$47
crypto 0% −$40
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 38 +28.2% +16.0% 68% 63% +4.2%
all 135 +25.0% +13.1% 66% 63% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 63% +2.3%
10% +2.3% 58% -7.5%
15% -7.6% 53% -16.5%
20% -16.7% 42% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$71 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized+$1,385
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses89 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)135 / 143
History coverage248d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+5%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 42¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 +$19 +18%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $51 +$31 +62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $51 −$50 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 05 $200 +$6 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $200 +$14 +7%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $100 −$98 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $200 +$119 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $50 +$50 +101%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $50 +$154 +307%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$83 +165%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $150 +$132 +88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $50 +$79 +158%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $100 +$31 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $150 +$54 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 +$41 +83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 +$67 +134%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw? Apr 06 $30 +$67 +224%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $30 +$56 +186%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 +$45 +45%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $150 +$64 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $59 +$38 +64%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 30 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31? Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $150 +$47 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $150 +$74 +49%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $100 +$18 +18%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $50 +$93 +186%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $100 +$104 +104%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $100 +$37 +37%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $100 +$56 +56%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $150 +$67 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 24d
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 24d
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $204 24d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 28d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 42d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 42d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 42d
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 50d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 53d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 53d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 58d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 60d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $200 62d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $200 62d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $200 66d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 71d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 71d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 71d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 72d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 74d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 74d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 74d
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $726.48 · official $726.49 (match) · 240 history records