Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7578…6426
other · 16 markets active 12h ago
2.0score
+$1,900 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,004 · open −$104
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,136
Realized+$2,004
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$1,717
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 3 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,655
7 days+$436
14 days+$437
30 days+$2,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,200 $1,350 +$150 (+12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $800 $700 −$100 (-12%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $240 $86 −$154 (-64%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $975 $0 −$975 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 59¢ 0¢ $3,148 $0 −$3,148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $268 +$557 +208%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,031 −$1,540 -51%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $994 −$975 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $965 +$303 +31%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5,041 +$2,058 +41%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,121 +$1,076 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $477 +$383 +80%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6,378 −$3,644 -57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,589 +$1,861 +72%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $249 +$357 +144%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $4 $0 +10%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $4,045 +$1,567 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% +$1,368
sports 5% +$686
tech 1% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,491 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $3,031 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 12h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 32¢ $994 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 91¢ $5 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 93¢ $5 15h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $82 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $6 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $3 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $10 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $13 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $4 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $5 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $100 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $50 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $142 36h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $62 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $72 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $270 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $346 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $92 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $300 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $19 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $63 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $20 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $12 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $561 39h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +38.0% +24.9% 64% 64% -4.8%
≤30d 13 +35.9% +23.0% 69% 62% +0.8%
≤90d 13 +35.9% +23.0% 69% 62% +0.8%
all 13 +35.9% +23.0% 69% 62% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.0% 62% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here +11.2% 62% -8.8%
15% +0.5% 54% -17.7%
20% -9.4% 38% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,135.80 · official $2,136.00 (match) · 177 history records