Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7577…85a8 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$18
other 10% −$10
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 72% 56% -8.0%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 72% 56% -8.0%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 72% 56% -8.0%
all 18 -0.9% -10.3% 72% 56% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 56% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -16.8%
15% -26.7% 28% -24.8%
20% -33.9% 17% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records