Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

75 0x7577…9298 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$29

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$71per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+12.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	+24.5%	+12.7%	67%	67%	-2.6%
≤90d	3	+24.5%	+12.7%	67%	67%	-2.6%
all	3	+24.5%	+12.7%	67%	67%	-2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.7%	67%	-2.6%
10%	+1.9%	67%	-12.0%
15%	-8.0%	67%	-20.5%
20%	-17.0%	33%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$61 vs −$100 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$245

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$29

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage20d

Avg bet$71

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$95	$90	−$5 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$100	$81	−$19 (-19%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$35	$34	−$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$25	$22	−$3 (-12%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$19	$18	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 03	$51	+$68	+134%
Canada recession before 2027?	May 29	$135	+$54	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$19	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$41	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$36	2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$31	2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$26	29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$26	29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Golden Knights	42¢	$51	16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	20d
Canada recession before 2027?	SELL Yes	65¢	$121	20d
Canada recession before 2027?	SELL Yes	65¢	$9	20d
Canada recession before 2027?	BUY Yes	51¢	$135	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.99 · official $244.99 (match) · 34 history records