Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7575…6a41 crypto 437 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,201 (-12%) realized −$8,201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%163W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$1,050
14 days−$1,640
30 days−$7,078
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$9,104
other 0% +$58
sports 0% −$56
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 34% -30.4%
≤30d 356 -12.2% -20.6% 37% 37% -21.4%
≤90d 356 -12.2% -20.6% 37% 37% -21.4%
all 437 -13.3% -21.5% 37% 37% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 37% -21.8%
10% -29.0% 37% -29.3%
15% -35.9% 36% -36.2%
20% -42.2% 36% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$143 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses163 / 274
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage203d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (234 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$52 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$41 +127%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$27 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$91 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$43 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$58 +191%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $54 −$52 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$33 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $56 −$53 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$30 +225%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$98 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$44 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$29 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$41 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$27 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$36 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$44 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$41 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$29 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$22 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$48 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$25 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$43 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$28 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$57 +187%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$33 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$16 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$12 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$29 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$7 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$55 +187%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$29 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $32 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $35 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $29 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $41 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $30 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $22 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $28 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $17 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $21 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $27 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 860 history records