Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7573…f359 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$18 (+40%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$6
world 21% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +174.8% +148.6% 100% 100% +112.8%
≤30d 2 +174.8% +148.6% 100% 100% +112.8%
≤90d 2 +174.8% +148.6% 100% 100% +112.8%
all 5 +56.3% +41.4% 60% 60% +31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.4% 60% +31.8%
10% +27.9% 60% +19.2%
15% +15.5% 40% +7.7%
20% +4.2% 40% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +135% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.77 per $1 lost it wins $7.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage172d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$10 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +246%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Dec 30 $13 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $19 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $9 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 37¢ $9 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $3 6d
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 164d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? SELL Yes 68¢ $13 168d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 168d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 171d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 171d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.77 · official $5.77 (match) · 14 history records