Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

75 0x7572…67ee crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$49 (+9%) realized +$41 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR70%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +70%

net ROI/market (all)+2.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+13.6%	+2.8%	70%	70%	-5.7%
≤30d	20	+13.6%	+2.8%	70%	70%	-5.7%
≤90d	20	+13.6%	+2.8%	70%	70%	-5.7%
all	20	+13.6%	+2.8%	70%	70%	-5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+2.8%	70%	-5.7%
10% ← realistic here	-7.1%	65%	-14.7%
15%	-16.0%	50%	-22.9%
20%	-24.3%	45%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.13 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$41

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	40¢	62¢	$15	$23	+$8 (+54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 18	$10	+$15	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 18	$30	−$29	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 18	$30	−$29	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 18	$29	−$28	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 18	$44	+$27	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 18	$38	+$16	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 18	$30	+$18	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 18	$21	+$19	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 18	$25	−$25	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 18	$32	+$35	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$5	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 18	$29	+$7	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 18	$30	+$10	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 18	$37	−$36	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 18	$29	+$18	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 18	$19	+$10	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 18	$24	+$16	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 18	$19	+$5	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 18	$16	+$12	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$15	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$10	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$30	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$30	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$29	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$41	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$38	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$29	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$37	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$29	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$19	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$24	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$19	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$16	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.51 · official $22.51 (match) · 37 history records