Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7572…ab0f other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,193 (-3%) realized −$4,015 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%83W / 134L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$846
14 days−$2,656
30 days−$2,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$3,678
finance 28% −$390
politics 12% −$1,061
world 5% −$961
sports 5% −$1,335
crypto 4% +$1,852
tech 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -5.4% -14.4% 31% 27% -10.2%
≤30d 132 -8.0% -16.7% 33% 29% -13.0%
≤90d 152 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 29% -13.0%
all 217 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 27% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 27% -13.0%
10% -27.7% 21% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -34.7% 17% -28.9%
20% -41.1% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$520) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$162 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$4,200
Realized−$4,015
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses83 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions46
Markets (closed)217 / 263
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$524
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $320 $309 −$11 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $290 $279 −$11 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $280 $268 −$12 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $240 $231 −$9 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $240 $229 −$11 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $220 $227 +$7 (+3%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $230 $221 −$9 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $170 $163 −$7 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $160 $151 −$9 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $160 $150 −$10 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $140 $133 −$7 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $131 $124 −$7 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $130 $122 −$8 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+11%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $185 +$1,015 +550%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $123 −$120 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $164 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $123 −$120 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $123 −$120 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $82 −$80 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 −$8 -8%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $931 +$141 +15%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$76 +75%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $51 +$304 +591%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3,098 −$145 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,190 −$222 -19%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $267 −$23 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $133 +$387 +291%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1,012 −$720 -71%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $510 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Argentina? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 England? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $302 +$112 +37%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $357 +$236 +66%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $204 −$202 -99%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $302 +$12 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $404 +$227 +56%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $164 −$64 -39%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $204 −$13 -6%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,461 +$27 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4,612 +$23 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $82 −$80 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $147 −$144 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 42m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 43m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 44m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $246 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $164 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $236 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,199.68 · official $4,199.88 (match) · 3429 history records