Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7571…33eb crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$920 (-14%) realized −$903 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%66W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$108
14 days−$371
30 days−$985
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$408
sports 16% −$538
other 3% −$56
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 42% -11.8%
≤30d 153 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 37% -24.8%
≤90d 153 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 37% -24.8%
all 153 -4.2% -13.3% 43% 37% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 37% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -32.0%
15% -29.2% 27% -38.6%
20% -36.1% 25% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$903
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses66 / 87
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)153 / 156
History coverage24d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 40¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 23¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 11¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$89 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $80 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$206 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $89 +$92 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$75 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$90 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$25 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $135 +$96 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$58 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $147 −$141 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$116 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$8 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$24 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$93 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$57 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$76 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$7 +8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $72 +$50 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$55 -95%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $58 −$45 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$72 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $148 −$140 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$25 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $139 +$132 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$18 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $16 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 45m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $18 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $38 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.82 · official $211.41 · 557 history records