Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x756f…1b2e world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5
other 29% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -8.9%
10% -19.1% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage444d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $93 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -10%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $1 $0 -15%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $1 $0 -20%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88000 and $86000 on April 4? Apr 04 $2 +$3 +115%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 01 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $44 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $40 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $41 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $45 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $20 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 112 history records