Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x756c…66c7 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$177 (+6%) realized +$168 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%42W / 66L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$56
14 days+$16
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$59
sports 25% +$247
weather 7% −$92
world 4% −$36
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.9% -43.8% 21% 21% -30.5%
≤30d 24 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 29% -3.5%
≤90d 39 -23.2% -30.5% 28% 28% -14.5%
all 108 +36.9% +23.8% 39% 36% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.8% 36% -5.7%
10% +12.0% 33% -14.7%
15% +1.2% 31% -22.9%
20% -8.7% 23% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses42 / 66
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)108 / 115
History coverage158d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 44¢ 46¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $56 +$43 +77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$27 -67%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$13 -66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$7 -45%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +238%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$86 +614%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $11 +$8 +75%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $196 +$96 +49%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $24 −$10 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $35 +$12 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $59 +$26 +44%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Mar 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 29? Mar 29 $36 +$13 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 29? Mar 29 $77 −$29 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28? Mar 28 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 27? Mar 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 27? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 27? Mar 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 15 $27 −$18 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $11 +$16 +150%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $4 +$19 +481%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $16 +$28 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 45h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $99 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $56 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $9 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.07 · official $194.07 (match) · 422 history records