Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7569…71a1
other · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$5 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses70 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 2 - 3 CD La Serena? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 0 - 3 CD La Serena? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $2 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $2 $0 -9%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-21? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals May 22 $2 $0 -5%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $2 $0 -7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury May 22 $5 +$3 +64%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 4.5 May 22 $2 +$1 +70%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 22 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2 +$1 +79%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $8 +$1 +15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $2 +$3 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$9
crypto 26% +$1
sports 20% +$14
world 7% $0
economics 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $23 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 98¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 2 - 3 CD La Serena? BUY No 98¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 0 - 3 CD La Serena? BUY No 99¢ $18 10h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $13 14h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $13 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 18h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 98¢ $6 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 42h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $6 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $6 42h
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? SELL No 45¢ $1 14d
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 46¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 14d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 14d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL 9z 56¢ $2 16d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY 9z 58¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 86 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 93 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 22% -8.7%
all 93 +3.5% -6.3% 75% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 22% -8.7%
10% -15.3% 17% -17.4%
15% -23.5% 15% -25.4%
20% -31.0% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.65 · official $5.65 (match) · 221 history records