Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7569…934b world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%14W / 30L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$5
other 32% +$16
politics 10% +$3
finance 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 21 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -8.9%
all 44 -2.7% -11.9% 32% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 7% -7.9%
10% -20.4% 5% -16.7%
15% -28.1% 5% -24.8%
20% -35.1% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage306d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $113 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $61 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $65 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $58 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$1 -23%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $90 +$6 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $53 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $41 +$18 +43%
Trump out as President in 2025? Dec 06 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $1 $0 +22%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $6 +$3 +60%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $2 $0 -18%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 08 $1 $0 -36%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $46 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $47 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $17 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $53 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $21 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.39 · official $33.32 (match) · 215 history records