Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7568…2ce1 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,914 (+38%) realized +$2,094 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$839per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,007
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 80% 80% +39.7%
≤30d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 80% 80% +39.7%
≤90d 5 +28.8% +16.6% 80% 80% +39.7%
all 5 +28.8% +16.6% 80% 80% +39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 80% +39.7%
10% +5.4% 40% +26.3%
15% -4.8% 20% +14.1%
20% -14.1% 20% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$572 vs −$100 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.87 per $1 lost it wins $22.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$820
Realized+$2,094
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$839
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ 50¢ $1,000 $820 −$180 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 27 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,000 +$298 +30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $918 +$1,737 +189%
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $1,000 +$119 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $1,012 1h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY New Zealand 88¢ $1,004 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY 76¢ $1,000 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 34¢ $918 21h
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 100¢ $1,119 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 89¢ $1,000 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.67 · official $819.67 (match) · 10 history records