Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7563…7654 crypto 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,828 (-8%) realized −$5,982 · open −$1,846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%154W / 201L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,045
7 days+$373
14 days+$373
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$2,989
other 19% −$8,323
sports 7% +$312
world 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤30d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +1.2%
≤90d 320 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 43% -12.9%
all 355 -4.3% -13.4% 43% 42% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% -18.8%
10% -21.7% 41% -26.6%
15% -29.2% 40% -33.7%
20% -36.2% 37% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$227 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5,982
Unrealized−$1,846
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses154 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions11
Markets (closed)355 / 366
History coverage567d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$166 +159%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $308 −$40 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$209 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $414 +$399 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$191 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,117 +$232 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $88 −$87 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $555 −$543 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 09 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 09 $203 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 09 $285 −$285 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 09 $200 +$288 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $300 +$549 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 09 $200 +$267 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 09 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 09 $400 −$43 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5 Apr 09 $787 −$787 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$32 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $160 +$389 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 09 $400 +$535 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 09 $200 +$212 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 09 $200 +$112 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 09 $200 +$156 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 09 $100 +$565 +565%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 13m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $268 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 20m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $416 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.89 · official $3.89 (match) · 846 history records