Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x755c…0854 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$265 (+2%) realized +$266 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,887
7 days−$1,887
14 days−$619
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$305
world 1% −$4
other 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -55.9% -60.1% 23% 23% -42.2%
≤30d 30 -26.8% -33.8% 43% 37% -14.2%
≤90d 36 -17.9% -25.7% 50% 44% -8.3%
all 47 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 45% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -7.2%
10% -22.8% 43% -16.1%
15% -30.3% 34% -24.2%
20% -37.1% 21% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$131 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage124d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 58¢ 57¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$54 -48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 19 $347 +$87 +25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $173 −$173 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) Jun 19 $399 −$399 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 19 $862 −$300 -35%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 19 $602 −$602 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 19 $492 −$340 -69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $150 +$68 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $31 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$25 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,143 +$671 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,253 +$712 +57%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $387 +$276 +71%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $513 +$32 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $500 +$179 +36%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $158 +$67 +42%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $107 +$138 +129%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $59 +$49 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $106 −$9 -9%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $450 +$176 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $351 +$107 +30%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $261 +$90 +35%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $345 +$136 +40%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $280 +$64 +23%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Mar 20 $11 $0 +4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Mar 20 $47 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $282 −$109 -39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 20 $80 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Mar 19 $114 +$42 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $214 +$44 +20%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) Mar 19 $100 +$56 +56%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $201 +$113 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $82 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $5 +$13 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $114 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $219 20m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $150 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,814 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $91 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $404 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $142 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $506 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $98 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 47¢ $102 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $57 33h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $1,966 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $345 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 23¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $908 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 99¢ $663 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $387 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $679 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $500 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 26¢ $13 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 40¢ $51 10d
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) SELL Monte 61¢ $104 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 11¢ $5 10d
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY Monte 58¢ $101 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 74¢ $542 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 13¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.03 · official $112.03 (match) · 129 history records