Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x755b…0cd5 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-7%) realized −$41 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$41
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$29
tech 8% −$12
sports 6% −$5
world 6% −$18
finance 5% −$3
politics 4% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -22.3% -29.7% 8% 5% -29.5%
≤30d 47 -21.5% -29.0% 9% 4% -27.2%
≤90d 47 -21.5% -29.0% 9% 4% -27.2%
all 47 -21.5% -29.0% 9% 4% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 4% -27.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 4% -34.2%
15% -42.0% 2% -40.5%
20% -47.7% 0% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)47 / 72
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+14%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? No 67¢ 92¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+38%)
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Yes 31¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-76%)
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Paul Skenes lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Yes 48¢ 36¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 27¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+231%)
Will Senegal win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 17¢ 40¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+135%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? No 52¢ 64¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Rayan Cherki win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 15¢ 43¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+196%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 27¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+67%)
Will Iran win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -31%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -9%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Yassine Bounou record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -25%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Croatia win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -20%
Will France win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Belgium win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -36%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $21 −$11 -50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $35 $0 -1%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -31%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 07 $6 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 21¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 21¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 21¢ $1 1h
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5h
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 6h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 11¢ $2 15h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? BUY No 13¢ $3 15h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 10¢ $2 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 12¢ $2 23h
Will Australia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 25h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 27h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 28h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 31h
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 36h
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 37h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 37h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 37h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 6¢ $3 42h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No 9¢ $4 43h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 14¢ $7 43h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 11¢ $6 43h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 45h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 45h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.06 · official $36.99 · 259 history records