Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x755a…bd06 sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 109L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$12
other 24% −$11
politics 16% −$7
economics 14% −$4
crypto 9% −$4
culture 7% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 116 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage160d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 10 $207 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 06 $148 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $625 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 05 $1,378 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $393 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 05 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 05 $436 −$2 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 05 $687 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $331 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $1,202 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $316 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $530 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? Mar 04 $167 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $161 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $731 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $215 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $354 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $368 −$2 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $648 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $707 −$2 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $736 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $42 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $42 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 21d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 21d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $49 33d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 33d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $147 103d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $148 103d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $3 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $155 103d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $3 105d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $157 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 105d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $147 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 105d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $147 105d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $2 105d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $157 105d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $2 105d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $157 105d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $161 105d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $161 105d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $151 105d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $151 105d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $162 105d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $162 105d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $150 105d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $151 105d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $162 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.89 · official $46.89 (match) · 609 history records