Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x755a…9748 sports 575 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,211 (+3%) realized +$1,239 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%251W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days+$288
14 days+$630
30 days−$4,668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1,841
crypto 18% −$829
other 9% +$16
world 3% −$23
politics 2% −$233
economics 1% −$87
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.4% +7.1% 53% 53% +5.5%
≤30d 171 -39.9% -45.6% 29% 27% -39.1%
≤90d 309 -13.7% -21.9% 37% 36% -15.5%
all 570 -5.7% -14.7% 44% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 42% -7.6%
10% -22.8% 40% -16.5%
15% -30.3% 38% -24.6%
20% -37.1% 35% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$50 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$1,239
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses251 / 319
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions2
Markets (closed)570 / 575
History coverage267d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $102 $77 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$68 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 +$174 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $98 −$97 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $80 +$75 +93%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 12 $86 −$84 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $98 +$78 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $49 +$47 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $102 +$323 +316%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $127 +$104 +82%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $131 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$12 +23%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 09 $101 +$91 +90%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $101 +$71 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $193 −$189 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $101 +$91 +90%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $263 +$242 +92%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $101 +$55 +55%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $96 +$109 +114%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $49 −$48 -99%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $49 +$12 +24%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $101 −$8 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $69 −$6 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $147 +$122 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $70 +$60 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $82 +$332 +405%
1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $101 +$84 +83%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $101 −$99 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $101 +$31 +31%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 30 $107 +$198 +185%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $101 +$34 +34%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 29 $107 −$106 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 10¢ $160 9h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 2d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $76 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand e BUY 14¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $101 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 39¢ $55 4d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 38¢ $86 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $101 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 49¢ $102 5d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 6d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $102 6d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 65¢ $101 6d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $80 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 6d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $49 6d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $25 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $98 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY No 59¢ $87 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.84 · official $329.84 · 1404 history records