Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
75 0x7556…0f44 crypto 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,582 (-4%) realized −$11,580 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%408W / 258L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,521
7 days−$2,334
14 days−$4,104
30 days−$4,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$9,930
sports 13% −$5,016
politics 0% +$38
world 0% +$5
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -14.7% -22.8% 58% 43% -19.8%
≤30d 120 -17.4% -25.3% 58% 43% -22.5%
≤90d 557 -8.8% -17.4% 61% 49% -14.3%
all 666 -8.9% -17.5% 61% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 48% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -22.1%
15% -32.6% 27% -29.7%
20% -39.2% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$253 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$11,580
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses408 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)666 / 662
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$452
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $549 +$57 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $127 −$126 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $378 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $236 +$141 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $224 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$132 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $673 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $311 −$303 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $140 −$132 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $256 +$162 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $362 +$325 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $455 +$247 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $578 +$237 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $651 −$425 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $336 −$325 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $155 −$150 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $502 +$36 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $202 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $223 +$70 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $206 +$133 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $204 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $517 −$293 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $301 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $291 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $294 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $254 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $378 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $236 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $221 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $92 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $85 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.64 · official $7.64 (match) · 3500 history records