Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7554…fc63
weather · 1604 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$403 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$470 · open −$67
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,619
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses780 / 916
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1696 / 1604
History coverage57d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 40 History 1696 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$518
7 days+$1,044
14 days+$990
30 days+$805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 57¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 72¢ 61¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 18? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on Apr Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 19? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 18? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 66% −$330
other 17% +$1,453
sports 16% −$160
crypto 1% +$21
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $15 59m
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $11 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $15 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $7 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $8 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 19¢ $18 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -46.5% -51.6% 28% 19% -20.8%
≤30d 457 -29.0% -35.8% 39% 26% -20.4%
≤90d 1696 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 38% -18.0%
all 1696 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 38% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 38% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 22% -25.9%
15% -36.0% 11% -33.0%
20% -42.3% 7% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,619.05 · official $1,619.21 (match) · 3500 history records