Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7551…f33f other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$8
politics 26% −$4
economics 6% −$1
world 3% $0
sports 2% −$45
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 15% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 79 -6.0% -14.9% 8% 4% -9.9%
all 79 -6.0% -14.9% 8% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 4% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage81d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $356 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $541 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $383 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $358 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $345 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $365 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $339 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $341 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 40m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $66 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 27d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $63 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $11 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 29d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 30d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 30d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 33d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $167 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.18 · official $168.18 (match) · 223 history records