Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7545…4bee
crypto · 633 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses369 / 262
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)631 / 633
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day195.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 631 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 33¢ 70¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Alycia Parks 82¢ 24¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$17
sports 36% −$16
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 631 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 48% -10.9%
≤30d 631 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 631 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 48% -10.9%
all 631 +0.3% -9.3% 58% 48% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover195.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 48% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 37% -19.4%
15% -25.9% 23% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 15% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $8.88 (match) · 1550 history records