Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7544…ea2d sports 38 markets active 3h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$728 (-17%) realized −$728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$744
7 days−$303
14 days−$303
30 days−$549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$542
crypto 5% −$62
other 2% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -30.7% -37.3% 36% 36% -18.7%
≤30d 24 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% -25.0%
≤90d 27 -32.9% -39.3% 37% 37% -25.4%
all 35 -32.1% -38.6% 40% 31% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 31% -25.9%
10% -44.5% 31% -33.0%
15% -49.8% 31% -39.5%
20% -54.8% 23% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$97 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage128d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $96 −$95 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $167 −$163 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $197 −$193 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $135 +$107 +80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $99 +$77 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $146 +$154 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $318 +$126 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $196 +$122 +62%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $210 +$140 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $98 −$96 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $159 +$252 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $132 −$130 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $184 +$246 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $148 −$145 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $150 −$148 -99%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $100 −$99 -99%
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 May 17 $194 −$192 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $135 +$59 +43%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $93 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $96 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $167 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $197 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $100 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $100 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $99 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $111 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $135 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $76 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $99 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $146 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $318 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $318 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $196 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $150 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $98 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 51¢ $101 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY 59¢ $210 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $159 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $132 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $184 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $148 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $150 18d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 23d
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $194 31d
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $194 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records