Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7544…aa31 other 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$35
sports 26% −$26
economics 9% −$8
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage133d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $153 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $693 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $782 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $615 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $417 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $169 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $333 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $295 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $487 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $251 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 7h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $58 8h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $58 10h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 11h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 18h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 35h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 39h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 41h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 41h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 42h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 45h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 46h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1369 history records