Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7541…a519 politics 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,083per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$14
economics 29% $0
sports 8% −$1
other 5% −$63
world 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 0% -37.7%
all 21 -2.0% -11.3% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$985) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage185d
Avg bet$1,083
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $155 −$62 -40%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $975 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $976 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 14 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $977 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $981 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $983 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $983 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $984 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 21 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $988 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $989 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 12 $5,905 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $93 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 113d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $973 121d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $975 124d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $975 128d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $976 131d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $976 132d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $977 133d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $976 134d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $977 135d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 136d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $978 137d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $978 138d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $980 139d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $980 140d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $981 141d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 142d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 143d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $982 144d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $983 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $983 147d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $983 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.09 · official $44.09 (match) · 92 history records