Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7541…76f0 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-15%) realized −$39 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$34
14 days−$40
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$13
world 26% −$17
sports 24% −$20
crypto 9% −$3
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -21.8% -29.3% 30% 30% -42.4%
≤30d 86 -12.4% -20.8% 36% 28% -29.1%
≤90d 86 -12.4% -20.8% 36% 28% -29.1%
all 86 -12.4% -20.8% 36% 28% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 28% -29.1%
10% -28.4% 19% -35.9%
15% -35.3% 13% -42.1%
20% -41.6% 7% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions60
Markets (closed)86 / 147
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 52¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +149%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $4 −$1 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 32m
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 33m
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 35m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 37m
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 54¢ $0 49m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 50m
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $1 50m
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 50m
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 51m
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 51m
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 51m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 52m
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 52m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 54m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 54m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 55m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 55m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 59m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 59m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 50¢ $0 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 57¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.06 · official $97.57 · 437 history records