Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x753d…2ce0 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,747 (+10%) realized +$2,874 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,289per market
Trades / day124.2pace
Fees−$878est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$66
world 4% +$2,404
other 1% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 24% +2.0%
≤30d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 24% +2.0%
≤90d 21 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 24% +2.0%
all 21 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 24% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 24% +2.0%
10% -21.0% 14% -7.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.6% 10% -16.7%
20% -35.6% 5% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,012) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$106 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,874
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$878
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,289
Trades / day124.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,012 +$375 +37%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $110 −$87 -80%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,015 −$4 -0%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,255 −$155 -12%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $79 +$1 +1%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,012 −$85 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $200 +$54 +27%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,000 +$21 +2%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 +$5 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,251 +$2,404 +192%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,601 −$226 -9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2,501 +$376 +15%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $75 −$38 -50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $3,752 +$338 +9%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 $0 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $147 −$11 -8%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,501 +$237 +10%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $517 −$54 -10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3,041 −$233 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2,851 −$227 -8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $378 −$41 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $377 41m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $46 41m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $200 41m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $740 41m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $5 41m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $3 42m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $8 42m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $8 42m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 11¢ $500 43m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $12 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $138 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $138 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $135 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $138 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $1 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $100 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $13 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1,000 44m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1,000 44m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,012 45m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $18 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $94 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $4 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $400 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $300 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.23 (match) · 269 history records