Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7538…40f9 sports 15 markets active 3d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,351 (-13%) realized −$1,351 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$691per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,412
14 days−$1,416
30 days−$1,416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,086
other 4% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -40.2% -45.9% 33% 33% -22.0%
≤30d 15 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 40% -20.8%
≤90d 15 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 40% -20.8%
all 15 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 40% -20.8%
10% -39.3% 40% -28.4%
15% -45.2% 40% -35.3%
20% -50.5% 40% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$685 vs −$614 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage10d
Avg bet$691
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $500 +$421 +84%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,027 +$1,614 +80%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $63 +$37 +58%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$156 -77%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3,043 −$3,000 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,624 +$1,544 +95%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $1,624 −$1,600 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $188 +$162 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 +$334 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $507 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records