Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7536…17fc sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate74%66W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$189est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$866
14 days+$866
30 days+$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$305
other 5% +$421
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +18.8% +7.5% 77% 62% -3.0%
≤30d 35 +12.2% +1.5% 77% 60% -1.5%
≤90d 89 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 65% -6.5%
all 89 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 65% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 65% -6.5%
10% -16.6% 48% -15.5%
15% -24.6% 28% -23.7%
20% -32.0% 13% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$220 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses66 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage98d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $809 +$456 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $333 +$253 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $301 +$32 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $224 +$77 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $334 −$329 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $252 +$82 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $920 +$89 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $857 +$63 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,110 −$648 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$122 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $273 +$151 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $654 +$170 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $557 +$81 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $202 +$72 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $419 +$487 +116%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $309 +$111 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $197 +$112 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $236 −$39 -17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $241 −$4 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $499 −$258 -52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $456 +$43 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $320 +$135 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $318 +$3 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $240 +$77 +32%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $575 −$428 -74%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 24 $501 +$37 +7%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5 May 24 $501 +$49 +10%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $100 +$15 +15%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5 May 23 $402 +$92 +23%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $353 +$120 +34%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $311 +$53 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $302 −$148 -49%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 May 17 $251 +$50 +20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $282 +$101 +36%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 May 17 $101 +$54 +53%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $185 +$18 +10%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 May 16 $301 +$55 +18%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 May 16 $110 +$46 +41%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 16 $156 +$29 +18%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 14 $75 +$36 +48%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $252 +$69 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $110 +$80 +73%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 13 $201 +$62 +31%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 May 12 $239 +$31 +13%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 May 12 $268 +$41 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,265 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $809 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $585 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $585 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $333 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $333 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $301 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $301 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $224 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $334 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,087 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $334 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $252 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,008 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $920 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $920 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $857 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 32¢ $0 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $463 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $603 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $507 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $324 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $424 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $273 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $825 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $654 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $274 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records