Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x7532…2a88 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%37W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$60
14 days+$65
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$53
sports 39% −$36
politics 7% +$32
crypto 7% +$33
world 4% −$79
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -2.7% -11.9% 80% 29% -8.4%
≤30d 38 -0.6% -10.0% 82% 32% -8.1%
≤90d 43 -3.8% -13.0% 79% 30% -7.5%
all 60 -12.2% -20.6% 62% 23% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 23% -9.4%
10% -28.2% 10% -18.1%
15% -35.1% 5% -26.0%
20% -41.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses37 / 23
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage120d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$23 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $150 +$8 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$2 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $169 +$19 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $251 +$18 +7%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $301 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$12 +4%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $301 +$15 +5%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $277 +$19 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$3 +8%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $230 +$7 +3%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$13 +5%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $301 +$14 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $210 +$15 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 +$21 +12%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $178 −$154 -86%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$57 +19%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 16 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $185 +$3 +2%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $99 +$14 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$4 +10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $47 +$9 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$52 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$12 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $340 +$29 +8%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 11 $43 +$5 +10%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 02 $35 +$14 +39%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 01 $8 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $12 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Mar 01 $9 −$3 -36%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $80 −$74 -93%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 28 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $224 52m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 95¢ $59 52m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $100 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $150 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $199 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $188 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $70 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 88¢ $98 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 11h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $107 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 12h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $100 17h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 90¢ $17 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 90¢ $16 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 69¢ $4 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 69¢ $22 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 93¢ $303 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 92¢ $301 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $300 28h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $2 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.43 · official $27.43 (match) · 203 history records