Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7531…97ac sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$30 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$3
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$15
other 22% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 36% -9.2%
≤30d 25 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 36% -12.6%
≤90d 25 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 36% -12.6%
all 25 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 36% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 36% -12.6%
10% -21.8% 32% -20.9%
15% -29.3% 28% -28.6%
20% -36.3% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $24 −$10 -42%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $20 −$10 -49%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$23 +197%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$14 +55%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$14 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 +$12 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 −$18 -22%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $114 −$2 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $47 +$48 +101%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$20 +104%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 +$19 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $33 +$32 +97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 10¢ $5 21m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 21m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $10 50m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 32¢ $17 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 4h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $20 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $7 6h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $20 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $15 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $68 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $56 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $21 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $12 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $64 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $21 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 84¢ $111 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $94 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.85 · official $7.85 (match) · 53 history records