Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x752e…0fd1 crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-3%) realized −$174 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%94W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$251
14 days−$367
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$315
sports 5% −$17
other 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 174 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 39% -15.2%
≤90d 174 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 39% -15.2%
all 174 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 39% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -23.3%
15% -28.0% 20% -30.7%
20% -35.0% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses94 / 80
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage11d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$83 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $263 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$41 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $158 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $74 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $189 −$25 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $122 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $193 −$15 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $371 −$79 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $121 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$48 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $95 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$28 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$39 +188%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $30 −$3 -9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $192 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $52 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $35 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $38 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $33 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $56 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.39 · official $225.39 (match) · 641 history records