Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7529…9d10 crypto 463 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 156d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,018 (-20%) realized −$5,018 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%208W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$818
7 days−$818
14 days−$1,212
30 days−$2,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$5,812
other 2% −$140
sports 2% +$172
finance 1% −$273
politics 1% −$22
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -61.0% -64.8% 18% 11% -47.8%
≤30d 137 -36.4% -42.5% 27% 22% -37.2%
≤90d 171 -30.7% -37.3% 30% 24% -37.5%
all 463 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 35% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 35% -31.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 27% -38.3%
15% -37.7% 20% -44.3%
20% -43.8% 12% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$42 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,018
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses208 / 255
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)463 / 463
History coverage157d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 463 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$73 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $289 −$32 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $197 +$194 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $118 −$78 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $90 −$60 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $87 −$20 -23%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$43 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Serena Williams Win Return Doubles Match at HSBC Championships? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 6? Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$10 -61%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $33 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $14 −$13 -91%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 4? Jun 05 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 4? Jun 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 4? Jun 05 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $13 +$29 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $11 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $18 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 15¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $44 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $67 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records