Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7525…cde1
world · 71 markets active 4d ago
1.0score
+$393,811 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$393,811 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$393,811
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses50 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 71
History coverage103d
Avg bet$32,786
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 0 History 76 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,100
7 days+$3,890
14 days+$3,890
30 days+$3,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $1,958 $0 −$1,958 (-100%)
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? No 3¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 11¢ 0¢ $1,032 $0 −$1,032 (-100%)
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $760 $0 −$760 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $17,164 $0 −$17,164 (-100%)
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? No 42¢ 0¢ $741 $0 −$741 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $756 $0 −$756 (-100%)
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? No 3¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $469 $0 −$469 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1,039 $0 −$1,039 (-100%)
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $996 $0 −$996 (-100%)
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,958 −$2,417 -123%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $741 −$735 -99%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 12 $756 −$756 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 08 $25,267 +$4,147 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $18,980 +$4,843 +26%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 29 $42 +$56 +132%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 29 $109,498 +$575 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $5,256 −$69 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $24,603 +$2,339 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 29 $29,000 +$544 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $29 +$5 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 28 $8,903 +$795 +9%
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be bet Mar 26 $1,020 +$45,390 +4450%
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026? Mar 26 $2,370 +$24,610 +1038%
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be bet Mar 26 $380 +$14,630 +3850%
Will 'Whatever's Clever!' - Charlie Puth debut week album sales be bet Mar 26 $82 +$35,679 +43511%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 24 $8,495 −$1,377 -16%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $99 +$28 +28%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $164 +$75 +46%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 24 $855 −$103 -12%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $17,924 +$2,043 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 24 $924 −$315 -34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 24 $49 +$38 +77%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 24 $747 +$401 +54%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Mar 24 $1,232 +$359 +29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 24 $1,501 +$416 +28%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 24 $3,186 +$711 +22%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $5,268 +$7,596 +144%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 23 $2,870 +$2,257 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $46,584 −$6,563 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 23 $6,679 +$10 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Mar 23 $3,000 +$1,100 +37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $85,996 +$26,414 +31%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $28,019 +$13,509 +48%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $72,094 +$2,073 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $569,000 +$100,000 +18%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 16 $12,764 +$2,576 +20%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 16 $7,676 +$3,057 +40%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 16 $39,561 +$7,677 +19%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $5,167 +$2,496 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $26,019 −$17,399 -67%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 10 $30 −$21 -69%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 09 $38,078 +$1,426 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 09 $1,039 −$1,039 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $13,270 +$5,219 +39%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $32,871 +$3,961 +12%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 07 $90,893 +$34,722 +38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 06 $469 −$1,209 -258%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$128,315
economics 28% +$45,955
politics 25% +$99,374
other 4% +$26,835
sports 2% +$2,733
culture 0% +$95,699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 3d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $98 44d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $92,778 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $343 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 39¢ $7,343 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4,591 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $134 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 59¢ $26,903 44d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+143.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 40% +4.3%
≤30d 5 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 40% +4.3%
≤90d 39 +195.1% +167.0% 79% 64% +8.5%
all 76 +168.9% +143.3% 66% 50% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +143.3% 50% +2.4%
10% +120.0% 39% -7.4%
15% ← realistic here +98.7% 29% -16.4%
20% +79.3% 22% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records