Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7525…ad62 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55 (+4%) realized +$63 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%13W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$79
sports 23% −$33
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -30.2% -36.9% 17% 17% -5.1%
≤30d 75 -30.2% -36.9% 17% 17% -5.1%
≤90d 75 -30.2% -36.9% 17% 17% -5.1%
all 75 -30.2% -36.9% 17% 17% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 17% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 15% -14.2%
15% -48.4% 11% -22.5%
20% -53.5% 9% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$9 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses13 / 62
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions12
Markets (closed)75 / 87
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $145 +$40 +28%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$12 -58%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $26 −$6 -23%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$11 -75%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $76 +$242 +321%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $51 −$28 -55%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 $0 -9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $151 +$33 +22%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $41 +$7 +16%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 −$24 -67%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$8 -22%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $20 +$72 +353%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -32%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -32%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$2 -29%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$91 +298%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $9 −$7 -72%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 −$7 -58%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 39m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 50m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.38 · official $151.08 (match) · 192 history records