Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7523…ce22 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate86%62W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 75% $0
other 22% +$11
crypto 1% +$3
sports 1% +$3
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 0% -3.7%
≤90d 6 +33.6% +20.9% 100% 50% +11.3%
all 72 +8.8% -1.5% 86% 38% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 38% -8.7%
10% -11.0% 19% -17.4%
15% -19.6% 7% -25.4%
20% -27.5% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses62 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage580d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 10 $3 +$3 +116%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 02 $11 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 02 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $12 +$4 +34%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 12 $20 +$7 +35%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Mar 05 $15 +$4 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jan 22 $15 +$1 +9%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) Jan 08 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 16 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 05 $12 $0 +3%
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 26 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 20 $10 +$2 +19%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $2 +$6 +233%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Oct 27 $3 $0 +15%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 22-28? Oct 06 $2 +$1 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? Sep 13 $2 $0 +14%
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $7 −$3 -39%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 29 $2 $0 +23%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22? Aug 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 8–August 15? Aug 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1? Jul 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1? Jul 28 $4 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18? Jul 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? Jul 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 20 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 09 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +12%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 27 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 21 $2 $0 +17%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16? May 19 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 30d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY No 45¢ $3 51d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 94¢ $20 65d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 65d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $5 74d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $7 74d
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 96d
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $14 112d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 131d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 75¢ $1 154d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $15 165d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) BUY JD Gaming 81¢ $12 175d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 23¢ $2 178d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $14 185d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 96¢ $14 191d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 93¢ $13 200d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 99¢ $12 202d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 97¢ $12 206d
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale? BUY No 94¢ $11 217d
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? BUY No 84¢ $10 232d
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY No 30¢ $2 241d
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $3 252d
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? BUY No 94¢ $3 262d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 22-28? BUY No 82¢ $2 274d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 285d
Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? BUY No 88¢ $2 288d
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 293d
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 296d
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 82¢ $3 300d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.86 · official $29.86 (match) · 161 history records