Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x751f…4a2c sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$510 (-35%) realized −$578 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$699
7 days−$568
14 days−$568
30 days−$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$289
other 14% −$204
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -49.5% -54.3% 31% 31% -47.2%
≤30d 16 -49.5% -54.3% 31% 31% -47.2%
≤90d 16 -49.5% -54.3% 31% 31% -47.2%
all 16 -49.5% -54.3% 31% 31% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 31% -47.2%
10% -58.7% 25% -52.2%
15% -62.7% 25% -56.8%
20% -66.4% 12% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$78 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 92¢ $100 $176 +$76 (+76%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$50 +50%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $151 +$60 +40%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$131 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $101 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $151 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $51 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $51 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $101 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $151 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 32h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 37¢ $51 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.90 · official $177.90 (match) · 36 history records