trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -35.1% | -41.3% | 38% | 25% | -37.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -35.1% | -41.3% | 38% | 25% | -37.9% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -26.6% | -33.6% | 44% | 39% | -55.9% |
| all | 18 | -26.6% | -33.6% | 44% | 39% | -55.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.6% | 39% | -55.9% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 28% | -60.1% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 22% | -64.0% |
| 20% | -51.1% | 6% | -67.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 72¢ | 70¢ | $13 | $13 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? | Yes | 79¢ | 77¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $32 | +$18 | +55% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $28 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $71 | −$70 | -99% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$5 | -49% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | Apr 08 | $14 | −$13 | -98% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET | Apr 08 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | Apr 08 | $7 | +$3 | +38% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Apr 08 | $6 | +$1 | +13% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Apr 08 | $14 | −$7 | -54% |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? | Mar 26 | $144 | −$144 | -100% |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? | Mar 26 | $47 | −$47 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Mar 26 | $10 | +$2 | +25% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Mar 25 | $15 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 21? | Mar 21 | $10 | +$5 | +48% |