Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x751b…5d1b sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,826 (-18%) realized −$2,879 · open +$53
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,918
other 7% −$60
world 1% −$8
economics 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 14 -30.4% -37.0% 21% 7% -21.4%
≤90d 23 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 9% -27.0%
all 23 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 9% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 9% -27.0%
10% -38.7% 4% -34.0%
15% -44.6% 0% -40.4%
20% -50.0% 0% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$1,006) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$225 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$2,879
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage76d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 27¢ $31 $99 +$68 (+217%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes $32 $17 −$15 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$4 -4%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 16 $1,006 −$55 -6%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $102 −$18 -18%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 24 $214 −$134 -62%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $142 −$17 -12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $21 −$9 -44%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $4 $0 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $144 +$39 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 23 $71 −$13 -19%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner May 23 $17 $0 +1%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner May 23 $8 −$2 -25%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League May 23 $10 −$8 -82%
LoL: Maryville University vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challe May 05 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $559 +$35 +6%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $37 −$18 -50%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $2,600 −$2,441 -94%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $1,445 −$206 -14%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $3,266 +$338 +10%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $4,000 −$651 -16%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $1,600 +$208 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 02 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $33 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $94 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $98 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $3 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $3 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 13h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.24 · official $116.24 (match) · 192 history records