Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7516…15c6
crypto · 206 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$703 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$941 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses63 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage2d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day427.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$373
7 days−$941
14 days−$941
30 days−$941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Jun 14 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 14 $560 −$60 -11%
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen? Jun 14 $287 −$275 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Jun 14 $44 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $122 −$45 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $98 −$8 -8%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $200 −$18 -9%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $36 −$7 -20%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $18 −$1 -6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $48 −$6 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $115 −$6 -5%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 13 $106 −$11 -10%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $18 −$2 -12%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $501 −$65 -13%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $114 −$5 -5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $604 +$159 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $193 −$40 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$37 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $720 −$52 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$573
sports 20% +$60
politics 10% −$64
world 8% −$78
other 5% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $7 53m
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL Yes 49¢ $401 1h
Will Sudan make Eric Adams a citizen? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $14 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 1h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Warsh say "Maximum Employment" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will Dan Sullivan vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National SELL No 14¢ $2 1h
Will Warsh say "Stable" or "Stability" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $77 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $89 2h
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $14 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -16.8% -24.7% 31% 20% -21.2%
≤30d 206 -16.8% -24.7% 31% 20% -21.2%
≤90d 206 -16.8% -24.7% 31% 20% -21.2%
all 206 -16.8% -24.7% 31% 20% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover427.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 20% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 17% -28.7%
15% -38.5% 13% -35.6%
20% -44.5% 12% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1160 history records