Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7515…0d06 crypto 1118 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,225 (-5%) realized −$1,225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%516W / 672L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day60.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$145
14 days−$421
30 days−$1,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$210
sports 22% −$133
other 16% −$754
weather 4% −$240
world 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -27.4% -34.3% 18% 15% -24.9%
≤30d 858 -16.6% -24.6% 46% 10% -14.6%
≤90d 1188 -16.5% -24.5% 43% 9% -14.4%
all 1188 -16.5% -24.5% 43% 9% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 9% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 6% -22.6%
15% -38.3% 6% -30.1%
20% -44.4% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses516 / 672
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1188 / 1118
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 397 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 18 $0 −$1 -3014%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Abidjan 2: Karim Bennani vs Karan Singh Jun 18 $0 +$2 +22169%
Jiujiang: Alexis Galarneau vs Dane Sweeny Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Huzhou: Dalila Spiteri vs Varvara Panshina Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Huzhou: Jessica Pieri vs Sijia Wei Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Avalanche vs. Kings Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Ksenia Efremova Jun 18 $0 $0 -463%
La Bisbal: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tamara Korpatsch Jun 18 $0 $0 +328%
La Bisbal: Ashlyn Krueger vs Storm Hunter Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
La Bisbal: Tamara Korpatsch vs Jil Teichmann Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Cagliari: Andrea Pellegrino vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Huzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Yexin Ma Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Hamish Stewart Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Saint-Malo: Lulu Sun vs Yue Yuan Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Huzhou: Xiaodi You vs Jiajing Lu Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ostrava: Zsombor Piros vs Max Houkes Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Abidjan 2: Maks Kasnikowski vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Daniel Michalski Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Huzhou: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Han Shi Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 29? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs George Loffhagen Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Mauthausen: Justin Engel vs Laslo Djere Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ostrava: Max Schoenhaus vs Jay Clarke Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Sloane Stephens Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 26? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Aix en Provence: Pedro Martinez vs Valentin Royer Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Saint-Malo: Clara Burel vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 26m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 55¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 10¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 10¢ $9 2d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 4¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $14 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.94 (match) · 3500 history records