Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7514…5dd2 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$355 (+18%) realized −$294 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day98.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days−$294
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$247
politics 10% −$2
sports 8% −$53
culture 3% +$22
tech 1% +$10
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 29% -60.8%
≤30d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 29% -60.8%
≤90d 17 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 29% -60.8%
all 17 +5.0% -5.0% 59% 29% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 29% -60.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 29% -64.5%
15% -22.4% 18% -68.0%
20% -30.0% 18% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$44 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)17 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day98.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 63¢ 97¢ $40 $61 +$21 (+53%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Yes 92¢ 85¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 85¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $283 −$251 -88%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $7 −$5 -67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$3 -23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $54 −$4 -7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $30 −$19 -62%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $46 17m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 18m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $20 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $33 23m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $20 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $20 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $20 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $20 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $2 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $87 46m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $27 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.69 · official $525.70 (match) · 301 history records