Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7514…82d1 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$247 (+29%) realized +$371 · open −$124
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$330
sports 47% +$457
crypto 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 22% +28.7%
≤30d 27 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 22% +28.7%
≤90d 27 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 22% +28.7%
all 27 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 22% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 22% +28.7%
10% -13.7% 22% +16.4%
15% -22.1% 22% +5.1%
20% -29.7% 19% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$22 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$371
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $86 $4 −$82 (-96%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 14¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$513 +1109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$45 +221%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 14m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 43m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 43m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 44m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 46m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.06 · official $152.13 · 62 history records